How We Calculate Profit
The Auction History Tracker calculates crafting profits based on a Level 106 crafter for all recipes. This page explains our methodology.
Calculation Method
Our profit and profit margin calculations consider the following factors:
- Material costs including crystals
- High-quality (HQ) result chances
- Break chance
- Current market value of results
Example: Lumber Synthesis
Recipe
3 logs + wind crystal + bundling twine → lumber
- NQ result: 3 lumber
- HQ1 result: 6 lumber
- HQ2 result: 9 lumber
- HQ3 result: 12 lumber
Cost Calculation
- Wind crystal cost: price of stack ÷ 12
- Logs cost: (price of stack ÷ 4) × 3
- Bundling twine: fixed cost (~95 gil)
- Total cost = crystal cost + logs cost + bundling twine cost
HQ Chance Calculation
Our system assumes a Level 106 crafter for all recipes. The HQ rate is determined by how many levels above the recipe's level cap your crafter is:
| Level Range (above recipe cap) | HQ Rate |
|---|---|
| Tier 0 (0 - 10 levels) | 1/64 |
| Tier 1 (11 - 30 levels) | 1/16 |
| Tier 2 (31 - 50 levels) | 1/4 |
| Tier 3 (51+ levels) | 1/2 |
Based on the HQ rate, we calculate the probability of each result:
- Break chance: 5% (0.05)
- NQ chance: 0.95 × (1 - HQ rate)
- HQ1 chance: 0.95 × HQ rate × (12/16)
- HQ2 chance: 0.95 × HQ rate × (3/16)
- HQ3 chance: 0.95 × HQ rate × (1/16)
Value Calculation
- Break value: Negative cost of crystal + 0.15 × (cost of materials)
- NQ value: 3 × (stack price ÷ 12)
- HQ1 value: 6 × (stack price ÷ 12)
- HQ2 value: 9 × (stack price ÷ 12)
- HQ3 value: 12 × (stack price ÷ 12)
Expected Revenue
We calculate expected revenue by multiplying each outcome's probability by its value:
Expected Revenue =
(NQ chance × NQ value) +
(HQ1 chance × HQ1 value) +
(HQ2 chance × HQ2 value) +
(HQ3 chance × HQ3 value) -
Expected Profit
Expected Profit = Expected Revenue - Total Cost
Profit Margin
Profit Margin = (Expected Profit ÷ Total Cost) × 100%